The Overconfidence Effect and decision making.

"Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion."
—Daniel Kahneman

There are two parts to  the Overconfidence Effect that I am fascinated by: the 'Illusion of Control' and 'Contrary Evidence.' 

Illusion of Control is the tendency for people to behave as if they might have some control when in fact they have none. Example of this can be seen in businesses everywhere, especially by leaders who feel they must control every aspect of the business. (Side note: for years all hiring at Google went though Larry Page, regardless of the position...)

Contrary Evidence where people engage in more defensive pessimism in advance of important outcomes, in an attempt to reduce the disappointment of a bad outcome.
So rather than embracing what could happen, they look to sabotage themselves to lessen the blow of possible failure before that failure has even occurred. It is self preservation at the expense of growth and forward motion.

One lesson I always teach in my workshops is to embrace that feeling of danger and loss of control. When that fight-or-flight sensation hits you, reframe it into "This is going to be a train wreck!!! And I can't wait to see what I learn from it!!!" 

Understanding that we have no control over the outcomes, and embracing change is what ImprovMindset Training is all about. Letting go of expectations, responding to stimulus in the moment and not sabotaging the outcome - these are the valuable lessons that we teach, and that help form a new heuristic for decision making in the workplace.

Find out more and see what ImprovMindset can provide for your organization.

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